#OutToLunch: How Kikuubo can transition from trading to manufacturing

By Denis Jjuuko

A few weeks ago, I was invited for a meeting in Jinja, which is about 80km away from Kampala. In order to make a small saving, I decided to drive with a friend who was also attending the same meeting. Our meeting was scheduled for 10.00am.

We decided to leave Kampala at 7.00am in order to make it to Jinja in time. We thought that two hours were enough to cover the distance. Because my friend lives around Bweyogerere and it was early morning, we didn’t anticipate any difficulty in being in Jinja well ahead of the scheduled time. We decided to use the main Kampala-Jinja Road instead of the one through Kayunga that I normally prefer. Afterall, my anticipation was that we would be driving against traffic as the majority of people who live in Mukono would be coming into Kampala.

The traffic was instead bumper to bumper in Namanve and Sseeta and we thought that once we go beyond Mukono town, we would be able to move faster. We continued our drive and along the way we started realizing that we could not make the trip by the scheduled time. We arrived in Jinja about 15 minutes late.

I remembered this while watching clips from a meeting between the president and the traders who are protesting the tax system. The president advised them to become manufacturers instead of importers of finished products.

If you are a regular reader of this column, you would know my position on manufacturing. I am an advocate because there aren’t many countries that developed without focusing on manufacturing. Through manufacturing, countries are able to employ large numbers of the working age population. Manufacturing ensures sustainable jobs with predictable regular income, a prerequisite for economic growth and wealth accumulation.

When people have a regular predictable income, and not depending on chance, they can be able to invest in long term projects such as housing. Banks can offer low interest long term e.g., 30-year mortgages. Business people would invest in sectors for long-term knowing there are people who will be able to afford their products or services.

When the majority of people’s incomes depend on prayer and the intercession of the holy spirit, investors keep away. The people can’t save. You can’t save what you don’t have. Banks, instead of lending money for business, they focus on lending to the government. They are nearly sure of being paid back than when they lend to businesses who don’t have an assured market.

Anyway, if Uganda is to become a manufacturing hub as the president wants it to be, there are certain things that government must put in place. One of them is the highway not only to Jinja but to the Kenyan border. There are plans to build the Kampala-Jinja Expressway but they remain largely plans todate. If you are a regular user of the road beyond Jinja, you know that jam builds up between Kakira and Iganga (Kakira and Jinja is smooth because it is a four lane road). Maybe the Kampala Jinja Expressway should become Kampala-Iganga or even Malaba Expressway.

If people are spending 3-4 hours to cover a distance of about 80km, like we did for the Jinja meeting, it will become costly for manufacturers as this is the main route for their raw materials and finished products (to the port of Mombasa).

But even if the road was wide and smooth, road transport is expensive for manufacturers. Railway transport provides solutions but plans about the Standard Gauge Railway (SGR) became a mirage. Yet at one stage we had a railway line that almost connected all the major parts of the country. We also have Lake Victoria; it can solve some our bulky transport woes.

The majority of Ugandan traders start after dropping out of primary or secondary school. They learn trading and after a few years of frugality and tenacity, they make it big. They will never invest in stuff that are not tangible such as research and development (R&D) which is key if any country is to become a hub. What most traders know is that if you pay this amount of money, you get this amount of goods and sell them at that amount of money. That is why EFRIS is a big issue yet maybe it shouldn’t.

Government needs to appreciate their strengths and limitations and invest in R&D on their behalf, showing them which sectors or products, they can invest in as manufacturers and handhold them until when they can transition from informal traders to manufacturers. It can match them with foreign investors for joint ventures and most importantly for technology transfer and support them on issues such as corporate governance. There are already traders in Uganda who have made this transition, how did they make it? It is the story government should be telling while dangling the investment incentives traders need to make the transition.

The writer is a communication and visibility consultant. djjuuko@gmail.com

Tags: Bweyogerere, Denis Jjuuko, Government of Uganda ., Iganga, Jinja, Kakira, Kampala, Kampala-Iganga, Kampala-Jinja Expressway, Kayunga, Malaba Expressway., Mukono, Namanve, Out to Lunch, Prime Time Communications

Out to Lunch

#OutToLunch: Surging bank profitability offers critical lessons for small businesses

By Denis Jjuuko It is that time of the year again when commercial banks publish their financial results in the newspapers as part of fulfilling the regulations that govern them. Most of them have registered year on year increases in profitability, lending, deposits and total assets among other metrics. If you only read the commercial banks’ results and made conclusions on the economy, Uganda’s economy is in such great shape. All the commercial banks combined made more than Shs2.1 trillion in profits according to the figures they released. That translates to nearly US$6 billion. The shareholders must be smiling all the way to their banks. Those who haven’t invested in commercial banks, must be wondering how to get in. The good news is that several of these banks are listed on the stock exchange. A big chunk of the money banks reported to have made came from their loan books. It isn’t entirely surprising since the interest rates they charge are some of the highest in the world. Anyone who charges upwards of 16 percent in annual interest should be able to grow every quarter, half year and annually. But I think the steady growth in commercial banks profitability comes at the expenses of other sectors of the economy. Assets of defaulters on these commercial bank loans were advertised on the opposite pages of many of the results of the banks. One hand gives, another takes, isn’t that what we have always been told? However, there is no need to begrudge banks. They aren’t entirely responsible for the high interest rates in the country. The capital requirements to start a commercial bank are prohibitive and those who recently failed to meet them were downgraded to lower tiers. Also, the government borrows at such high rates giving banks carte blanche to charge similar and even higher rates. Those who borrow and default are also many. Banks tell us, lending to Ugandans is high risk. Probably it is. I believe you know somebody who castigated you for depositing money on their mobile money account on which they had renegaded to pay back. Anyway, what can we learn from the financial performance of the commercial banks? There many lessons especially for businesses. Commercial banks just like other big business that publish their results such as telecoms have one thing in common — repeat long term customers. When you sign up for a loan such as a mortgage, you commit to pay back for such a long period. If you borrow for say 10 years, the bank is nearly assured of making money from you for 120 months. Should you fail, they have a property you gave them as collateral to get their money bank. Some of the costs they incurred to sign a customer were a one off. And if you are a disciplined borrower, they almost incur no other costs to recover their money. Long term customers who pay periodically are a goldmine for any business. Unless otherwise, many people don’t change their bank accounts. So even those who don’t borrow, there is some monthly or usage fees they pay. A bank is therefore assured of income. Telecoms make money the same way. How many times have you changed your telephone line? Many people don’t change their telephone lines. That means that a telecom is assured of making money off you until you die. Repeat long term customer at its best. Even when you die, sometimes the family keeps the line so that there is some continuity especially for those involved in doing business. As small businesses, it may not be easy to have an assured customer for 10 years or a lifetime so there is need for them to work hard to attract repeat customers. It means improving the product all the time and constantly marketing so that customers can return regularly. Commercial banks and telecoms do that all the time because if they don’t, customers can move to other banks and telecoms respectively. There is a need to observe how they market, what they do to retain their customers and try to copy that even when small businesses don’t have unlimited budgets. The writer is a communication and visibility consultant. djjuuko@gmail.

June 5, 2026

Out to Lunch

#OutToLunch: Bank of Uganda’s small business fund good but….

By Denis Jjuuko Small and microbusinesses have always had issues of accessing capital either to grow or stay in business. Commercial lenders charge premiums and demand stuff that these small and microbusinesses can only dream of. In order not to sink, they usually stay off commercial loans preferring to remain small or turn to informal lenders if they really must borrow. Yet small businesses are the foundation on which economies are built. Collectively, they employ the majority of people in most economies. Look at the business near you, it is either small, medium or micro. The woman selling groceries near your home. The young man making street food. Your favourite boutique in the commercial complex near your office or even the eatery from which a young girl delivers food to your desk every lunch hour. It is perhaps under this background that the central bank decided to launch the small business fund (SBF). Of recent, the central bank has been advertising this facility. Under this fund, small businesses can borrow up to Shs500m at a maximum annual interest rate of 10% with a repayment period of up to four years. This sounds great. An annual interest rate of 10% sounds like manna from heaven in a market where the average rate is 20%. This kind of fund is designed to unlock the potential of small business and it is the right pathway for the economy to take. Access to capital by small businesses and individual entrepreneurs is one way through which Uganda can achieve its bold ambitions of being a US$500b economy by 2040. Currently, the country’s economy is around US$50b. Growing it by tenfold as the Ministry of Finance, Planning and Economic Development loves to proclaim nowadays is through strategic support to small and micro businesses among others. When the small businesses grow from a single employee to 10 or 100, that moves many people out of poverty. The Bank of Uganda must be commended for this step, at least for the idea. The challenge, however, with SBF is to find a bank that has this money or even willing to disburse it. The SBF brochure lists all the 21 commercial banks, 8 credit institutions, 2 microfinance deposit taking institutions and another 4 Saccos. When you contact most of these institutions, their staff will most likely feign ignorance or endlessly promise to get back to you which they don’t do. Sometimes, those which claim to have the money start changing goalposts halfway the application process. One of the promises they make is that they can get you the money immediately if you agree to forego the SBF and instead acquire one of their loans tailored for small businesses but at an annual interest rate of 20% or more. If you are desperate, this is most likely the road you will take. Remember, that application processes are not free. You have to pay commercial bank appointed lawyers and surveyors for verification and evaluation of the property or whatever will be acceptable as collateral. Usually, those lawyers and surveyors charge many times above the market rate. And then they have no shame in mentioning a low valuation as the forced sale rate. Sometimes a developed property is given a forced sale rate that is lower than an empty plot of land in the same neighbourhood. It is a fraudulent practice that the central bank must fight if it has good intentions for small and microbusinesses. There are so many other things commercial banks require which all cost money before money is or not even disbursed. I think that way their third-party service providers (lawyers, valuers etc.) get paid and keep in business. Anyway, the real reason commercial banks don’t want to disburse the SBF money to borrowers is a structural issue that the central bank must solve. The Bank of Uganda only provides 50% of the money under SBF with the commercial banks expected to provide the other half. If you borrow Shs100m, the small business fund only provides Shs50m and the commercial bank must provide the other Shs50m. The commercial bank has no interest in lending its 50% of the money at 10% annually when it can lend it at 20% while footing the cost of administration, marketing and recovery. The commercial banks aren’t charity organizations. The central bank should instead provide 100% of the money, allow banks to take 5% of the interest as their fees and remit the other 5% to the central bank. That way banks will be motivated to sell the SBF loans thereby enabling small business to access this credit. Otherwise, the current structure doesn’t solve the problems the central bank envisaged in creating the small business fund. The writer is a communication and visibility consultant. djjuuko@gmail.com

June 5, 2026

Out to Lunch

#OutToLunch Will Uganda’s newly discovered love for international airports grow the economy?

By Denis Jjuuko Uganda has discovered its latest love interest — international airports. We have always had one international airport at Entebbe and some airfields in many parts of the country. But those aren’t the talk of town or dominating online discussion groups and timelines. Construction of an international airport is underway in Kabaale just outside Hoima ostensibly to support the oil and gas sector. New ones have been proposed around Kidepo National Park to support tourism and facilitate regional trade. But the one that has led to more discussions has been the proposed one at Nyakisharara outside Mbarara town. Apparently, it will enable flights to south America to refuel from there on their journeys to Asia and elsewhere. The proposers of the airport claim that this is an existing gap. I am not an aviation expert, so I don’t know why these flights aren’t able to refuel at Entebbe or even existing airports in East Africa. I am also not sure whether it makes sense to build an international airport whose main business is refueling flights from south America. What else caused debate was the release of the artistic impressions of the Nyakisharara airport. Some people claimed the airport looked exactly the same as one somewhere in the Middle East. Some people prompted artificial intelligence apps to make one at least with the famous horns of the Ankole cows incorporated into the design. This newly found love for international airports within a few kilometres of each other have led to the continuation of a debate that never stops — the lack of scheduled domestic flights in Uganda. Up to the 1990s, there were affordable scheduled flights to Kasese, Arua and other parts of the country. Some still exist but they cost an arm and leg, unlike in developed markets in Europe where people fly for a song. There are many reasons that explain the lack of affordable domestic flights in Uganda. The infrastructure is poor enabling only small aircraft to operate at these fields. But that isn’t the biggest problem. The market simply doesn’t exist. Until oil starts flowing from the wells in western Uganda, the country’s economy is largely within a radius of 80km of Kampala. Otherwise, businesses in many parts of the country are small comprised of smallholder farmers and petty traders. The majority of these people have no genuine reason to fly to Kampala and if they have, they wouldn’t afford the tickets even cheap ones that would sustain an airline business. Bus companies have tried to provide executive coaches where people pay an extra Shs10,000 or Shs20,000 to travel in comfort. After a few months or years, they usually close and return to non-executive passengers. The argument the domestic flight enthusiasts give is that the markets for air travel is of those who drive personal cars to these towns. The statistics are hard to find but how many cars arrive in Soroti or Arua from Kampala every single day? There aren’t many. Most of these towns have few hotels but you will hardly arrive in a town and find no room for a night. That is why most people who travel to these towns don’t even bother to book accommodation in advance. They know these towns with fewer than 1,000 hotel rooms will have plenty of free rooms when they arrive. A town which can’t fill less than 1,000 hotel rooms each night probably doesn’t have much business going on. Decent hotel rooms in Uganda cost on average less than Shs100,000 a night including some sort of breakfast. If people can’t fill hotel rooms of Shs100,000, how would they fill aircraft of 50-200 seats on a regular basis for the airline to make money? Look at Members of Parliament, one of the biggest categories of high earners in Uganda. Many of those who represent constituencies outside Kampala come for their weekly meetings by night bus. They can’t afford to drive on a weekly basis. Where scheduled flights exist like Kasese, they don’t use them as well. If a high earning category in Uganda can’t afford to drive every week to Kampala, what about small trader in Kasese or Arua? Although we can improve the airfields to facilitate air travel, international airports in every corner of the country won’t lead to improved incomes for the majority of Ugandans. However, if we want tourists to avoid grueling road trips to Kisoro or Kidepo, smaller airports could do, which could be expanded with increases in traffic. Though investments in agribusinesses and small-scale industries could lead to improved incomes easily for the majority of people who then could be targeted for flying. As per now, international airports could end up as vanity projects. The writer is a communication and visibility consultant. djjuuko@gmail.com

June 5, 2026