#OutToLunch Is Kikuubo’s end as the region’s trading hub nigh?

By Denis Jjuuko

There is a video circulating on whatsapp showing empty shops in some of the arcades in downtown Kampala. The shops are on the ground floor and accessible. After watching it, I called a few of my friends who work downtown to confirm availability of these shops.

 

They told me, the story is largely true and many people are willing to sell their shops and relocate. Kikuubo and indeed downtown Kampala used to be the hub of trade for wholesalers for the entire country and beyond. Traders from all over Uganda used to flock it to buy stuff to stock their shops. Others traders came from Congo, Sudan, Rwanda, Burundi, and some even surprisingly from Kenya.

 

Today, Kikuubo is starting to lose its influence. There are many reasons. Factory owners are sidestepping Kikuubo to deliver goods directly to traders across the country. When you drive to all major towns (some now called cities) you will find many trucks of distributors delivering merchandise to traders in those towns. So the traders no longer have to come to Kikuubo to buy stock, it is delivered to them wherever they are. Many traders are also simply buying directly from the factories, cutting out the Kikuubo middlemen. Factories are being set up outside Kampala as well.

 

Some towns have also grown. A small town like Gayaaza now feeds traders in Ziroobwe and Kalagi. Mukono supplies traders from nearby towns. Kampala’s traffic jams mean that a trader makes a saving if he avoids shopping from Kikuubo. Nateete is booming because it is more accessible than Kikuubo for traders from the nearby towns like Nakawuka, Bulenga, and Mpigi. Also, rent is 10 times cheaper in the suburbs than in Kikuubo.

 

One of the people I called told me that he is closing his shop in Kikuubo and is going to buy a few smaller trucks and have a delivery system. He will only maintain a store where his trucks pick up the merchandise and deliver it directly to his customers. He has been creating a database over the years but also he will be able to get new customers on the routes he will chose. He thinks he will become more profitable that way. He is basically changing from a trader to a logistics entrepreneur.

 

I was also recently in Masaka and Mbarara and I saw that these towns are growing massively with many arcades coming up. A trader in Kyotera, which is less than 50km from Masaka will not travel to Kikuubo to buy stock when he can get it from Masaka. A trader in Bushenyi will prefer to restock from Mbarara than Kikuubo. Remember, that factories and distributors are also delivering directly to them. The same applies to Mbale, Gulu, Arua, Lira and many other towns.

 

Because the traders from Masaka or Arua are growing, they have started flying to China, Turkey, and other countries looking for cheap bargains. Kampala traders no longer have the monopoly of flying out of the country.

 

Don’t get me wrong. Kikuubo isn’t going to collapse today, it’s influence, it’s status as the region’s trading hub is simply going to wane. Kampala’s population is going to grow to 10 million people in the next 10 years from four million in 2014 so there will still be some business downtown but not at the rate it has been over the last few years. As small towns like Mpigi, Nakawuka, Ziroobwe, Kalagi, and Lugazi among others grow, so will Kikuubo’s decline accelerate.

 

The real estate moguls in Kikuubo need to start thinking about these changing dynamics and find strategies that can keep their buildings relevant. Because of COVID-19 and the growth in internet and logistics, Kikuubo traders who vacated the shops for the suburbs are feeling liberated. They no longer have to keep awake wondering how to make the rent.

 

This challenge isn’t unique for Kikuubo alone, it happens in all cities as they grow. Population growth and infrastructural developments make some areas less significant as they previously were and downtown Kampala finds itself in such a situation today and in many years to come.

 

Some buildings may have to be repurposed, rent rates may have to be significantly cut, and Kampala Capital City Authority may have to work with the real estate entrepreneurs to create campaigns that promote Kikuubo and other places. Traders who will prefer to remain in Kikuubo can no longer wake up, open the doors and wait for buyers like they currently do. They will need to market, find innovative ways to reach retailers happy not to come to Kikuubo or downtown for anything.

 

The writer is a communication and visibility consultant. djjuuko@gmail.com

 

 

 

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#OutToLunch: Xenophobic attacks call for investments in home countries

By Denis Jjuuko In the early 1990s, the world started to witness the dismantling of one of the most antediluvian official racist regimes ever assembled. Nelson Mandela, leader of the African National Congress would be released from prison in 1990 after 27 years of inhumane confinement on Robben Island. A new South Africa was on the horizon. Mandela would win the country’s first multiracial presidential elections in 1994 after his ANC won a large majority of parliamentary seats. Mandela and his ANC’s victory marked the end of official apartheid in South Africa. Mandela mentioned from the beginning that he wasn’t replacing official white racism with official black racism. He called the new South Africa, a rainbow nation. A country that embraced you regardless of the color of your skin. Unlike the majority of the so-called revolutionaries, Mandela ruled for one term. He ended up as one of the world’s most revered statesmen and even became a celebrity! At home, after the euphoria of the 1994 elections, many black South Africans realized that the end of apartheid didn’t mean that they would move from their shebeens in the townships to white homes in leafy suburbs and take over white businesses and send the whites to wherever. South Africa wasn’t Idi Amin’s Uganda. They realized that the rainbow mantra meant co-existence. They rejected it but they were still a bit hopeful. The ANC understood the sentiments of many black people and created policies like black economic empowerment (BEE), which provided opportunities for blacks and other people of color. If a white owned a business, they needed some black people in top management and on the board. Some black people also needed to own shares. Government tenders were reserved for business that embraced BEE. But such opportunities were of course reserved for elite blacks — educated in Europe, America or even in the exclusive South African universities. The majority of the beneficiaries of BEE were ANC stalwarts and that is how they became billionaires and today’s captains of industries. Others became tenderprenuers (influencing government tenders). Apartheid had denied the majority of blacks quality education and other opportunities. They didn’t have skills. The apartheid regime preferred to import professionals from elsewhere to work in black communities or do jobs the whites didn’t want to do. That is how Ugandan teachers and medical doctors ended up in South Africa in the 1980s. They settled there quickly and established themselves as hard working, set up private practices and generally built better lives than many of those they left at home. South Africa had (still does) world class universities and when they opened up the country in 1994, many people started attending school there. I would also end up at an elite South African university 10 years after Mandela had been elected for my graduate education. South Africa was and remains the continent’s most sophisticated and largest economy. As economies of many African nations crumbled, South Africa’s soared. Many Africans unable to be externalized to America or Europe for kyeyo saw it as the next perfect frontier and arrived in droves. Many had seen the doctors and teachers who had migrated earlier living better lives. Those who visited Johannesburg, Cape Town, Durban or Pretoria saw a modern country where they wished to work and live. South African TV soap operas Egoli, Generations and Isidingo created a desire that many people wanted to experience themselves. Those who had made it to South Africa arrived back in Kampala every December with fancy cars and threw white-dress themed parties. Another Bantu migration of sorts had to happen but this time to kuyiriba (hustle) including becoming Sangomas (fake traditional healers). In South Africa, ANC riddled with corruption forgot to create jobs for the majority of blacks who were largely uneducated and unskilled. Populist politicians like Julius Malema saw an opportunity and fanned the flames that lead to today’s xenophobic attacks against blacks from outside South Africa. Hundreds have been evacuated back home in Uganda. They are now chilling in Kyankwanzi, ostensibly undergoing orientation. I am not sure what that means. But the xenophobic attacks should be a wake up call for migrants as well as governments of their home countries. People largely migrated to South Africa to find better opportunities for themselves. If we created jobs here, the majority wouldn’t have left. There must be a deliberate way to encourage migrants to invest back home. NSSF should be pushing them for voluntary savings. Capital Markets Authority should be doing drives for collective investments. National Housing should be building houses they can buy. Uganda Investment Authority should be making presentations on where to invest. It used to happen until when politicians hijacked platforms like the Uganda North American Association Convention. Buganda Kingdom is trying with its Buganda Bumu Convention but it is a drop in the ocean. If we refocused, people wouldn’t be evacuated or even deported and returned home with nothing. And lastly an enabling environment that enables businesses to thrive. The writer is a communication and visibility consultant. djjuuko@gmail.com

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Out to Lunch

#OutToLunch: Skills and investment portal could help those fleeing xenophobia

Denis Jjuuko Just like that, we are already in the second half of 2026. Six months to the end of the year. Time really flies fast even when you may not be having a great time. The year kicked off with presidential and parliamentary elections in Uganda and a war in Iran that disrupted global economies. Skyrocketing fuel prices mean a tough economy for ordinary people. As if that wasn’t enough, an Ebola outbreak was declared in Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and a few cases in Uganda. Some countries reacted by banning Ugandans from entering their countries. Businesses and opportunities were lost. Covid-19 taught people that travels can easily be disrupted. Yet if you live in Kampala, you won’t tell there is any Ebola outbreak. Life as far as Ebola is concerned is normal. Anyway, a new government is now in place. More ministers than Uganda has ever had and a few acting ones, holding more than one docket. They have promised an economy that jumps from USD50-60 billion to a USD500 billion one annually. Government says it will do a lot of stuff to achieve this. Sometimes though, government is government. We pray to be alive to enjoy this. The end of the first half of the year in Uganda means the start of a new financial year. As you may notice, your fuel pump prices are going up as the government has increased the tax it charges on each litre of fuel. The fuel prices have been high already due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz due to the war in Iran, now they will even be higher. Time to implement some austerity measures at home. Life is for the brave, not so? You probably made some resolutions at the beginning of 2026. Hope you have already achieved them or you are half way there. If you haven’t started on them, you can still adjust a few things. A clip on social media shows somebody whose goal this year was to buy a car but has easily added the letters p.e.t at the end of car to mean carpet. That is what he will buy. The car is out of reach now but the carpet shouldn’t be. Creative way of achieving some resolutions. Whatever resolutions you may have made, starting a new life in South Africa may have to be reconsidered. Ordinary black South Africans unable to find jobs have turned to other Africans who migrated there accusing them of depriving them of their apartheid inheritance. Some people have already lost their lives and/or properties. The government of Uganda is evacuating Ugandans facing xenophobic attacks in South Africa. Hundreds have been flown home already. They have had enough of it. I hope the government of Uganda has a plan for them upon arrival from the country that once had leaders like Nelson Mandela. Have the impending returnees gained any skills that can help Uganda drive the economy to the promised land of USD500 billion a year? Do they have some capital they would like to deploy? Those who have some needed skills could be linked to those who need them. A digital portal could be designed where they register indicating the skills and expertise they possess so those who need them could easily find them. Those looking for businesses to invest in could also do the same. Matching businesses with the skills and even capital is a necessity to grow the economy. The portal would of course not be for only those returning from South Africa but for all people to ensure inclusivity. I think some recently returned from Iran and there are always many returning from other countries as well. Millions of others are here in Uganda. They have some skills, but they don’t know how to reach those who need them. Many others have the required capital businesses need to scale but don’t know how to invest. That is how they fall to charlatans promising abnormal returns on investment. Of course, investing in other people’s business would require some sort of public oversight so that people don’t lose their money easily after investing but it shouldn’t be as difficult as going to heaven or listing on the stock exchange. A standard legal agreement or registration of this investment with a public entity like the Capital Markets Authority or Uganda Registration Services Bureau could help. The writer is a communication and visibility consultant. djjuuko@gmail.com

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Out to Lunch

#OutToLunch: Africa must level up if the continent is to create a trillionaire

By Denis Jjuuko There was hullabaloo recently when the world’s richest man, Elon Musk, yet again launched another initial public offer (IPO) this time for his space exploration, satellite internet, artificial intelligence and social media company SpaceX. The IPO made him the world’s first trillionaire in US, not Zimbabwean, Dollars! It didn’t take long before the usual commentators in Uganda and elsewhere on the continent went into overdrive with many of them running out of superlatives in praise of Musk. Some owned him as an African, since he was born in South Africa while others blamed everyone else but themselves on the state of innovative companies on the continent. Why aren’t Africans developing AI products and companies, many wondered. Many people have probably tried but to scale them is difficult. Look at how many Africans have developed payment applications. In every innovative hub in Kampala, Nairobi, Lagos or Johannesburg, there are many people developing all sorts of payment apps but they remain relatively unknown outside the ecosystems in which they are being developed. Once in a while, a founder will get some funding and there will be some noise evidenced by billboards in various capitals featuring Nigerian musicians and once the rental fees are done, you will hardly hear about them. Until when they receive another round of investments. I have a feeling many founders’ dream ends at raising a certain amount of funding. Once they have money to pay bills, they sit and relax a bit. I hope I am wrong. But I wouldn’t blame many founders or entrepreneurs on the continent. Creating innovative products like building re-usable rockets or even AI applications that can be scaled requires enormous resources that are hard to realize. How many founders or entrepreneurs will refuse a job that pays money immediately to work on a product whose success can’t be easily determined? They need to pay bills and can’t always look on when their beautiful ex-girlfriends remind them that they couldn’t “eat potential.” Many American innovators have become successful because the government provides them tax breaks and subsidies. Elon Musk wouldn’t have been able to scale Tesla and SpaceX if he wasn’t receiving a lot of subsidies, soft loans and even contracts from the US government. How many African governments offer contracts to a start up? How many provide soft loans and subsidies? Nobody wants to do so. We easily run to Indian multinationals to develop simple things like an integrated website for tax collection. Had SpaceX or Tesla been founded on the African continent, most likely Elon Musk would still be operating in a shared space at an innovation hub at Ntinda Complex or Motiv around Bugoloobi. Unless of course if he knew someone who knew someone whose relative worked in the presidential palace. If he was lucky, he would have been given a flyer to borrow money at 10% payable in four years and he would need to be super lucky to actually get the loan amount credited on his account. Banks don’t look at you if you don’t have a statement that shows a lot of cashflow. I won’t talk about collateral today. That is why you find many people going to Guangzhou in China, bring in whatever that can fit in their checked in luggage, clear taxes, sale and repeat. A few trips over a period of 5-10 years and loan officers are knocking on their doors every day. By this time, the innovator at the innovation hub is most likely still scavenging for the next investor, prompting AI to design some fancy slides for the virtual seed funding presentation to potential investors. The investors listen, love the idea, but they are more likely to get their money back if they backed an 18-year-old kid working from his father’s basement somewhere in California. If they decide to invest in an African’s start up, it is very little money. The Africans who have some money don’t want to invest in “weird” things like space exploration or even AI data centres. They rather invest with a guy claiming to be rearing goats or keeping poultry as long as he promises a huge monthly return. The innovator capable of developing an AI product or a rocket sees the chicken guy rolling on Bandali Avenue in a Subaru with some bimbos and wishes he did the same. If he is a honest person, he would join those opening salons and boutiques in Kyanja Mall. No need to reinvent the wheel, he would console himself. I know that some African governments have funded some startups but they are really few and founders are usually well-connected people. Would an African stock exchange list a non-profitable start up? There is a need to level up to create a critical mass of innovators. If we do, once in a while we’ll have an African Elon Musk, Jeff Bezos or another Aliko Dangote. The writer is a communication and visibility consultant. djjuuko@gmail.com

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