#OutToLunch Africa must industrialize or wait for COVID to decimate it

By Denis Jjuuko

Less than 10% of 1.3 billion people in Africa have been vaccinated against COVID-19. The major reason is because Africa is comfortable with importing everything. We have never looked at ourselves as producers. So when COVID-19 struck, we didn’t do much, waiting for what the west would do.

I listened to a government official say that the reason we don’t have enough beds in intensive care units is because they take time to be imported. We also heard that oxygen gas cylinders also take time to be imported. What do we make then?

We are told repeatedly that Africa’s comparative advantage is in producing food. How much do we grow and how much do we import? Africa imports food worth US$35 billion a year and the figure is estimated to hit US$100 billion by 2030. So is this our comparative advantage as we wont to claim at each conference and in every little paper we publish? If we can’t even grow enough food for ourselves then what are we good at? We export the coffee and then import the dregs in the name of instant coffees that we proudly consume.

Africa has a very young population compared actually to most other continents. This is the right age group to retool and ensure that they can take on manufacturing. Let us look at the automotive industry, which makes economies truly industrial.

Annual car production pre-COVID-19 days is averagely 97 million cars. Of these 30% are made in China. China’s population is just 1.4 billion people, roughly the same population as Africa. Africa only produces 1% of the world’s cars. Does it then surprise anyone that when it comes to COVID-19 we are simply begging other countries?

Look around, if the big pharma that have developed the vaccines tomorrow decided to release the formula for making them, shall we even manage to make them? Are we setting up factories that can even do contract manufacturing? What makes it so difficult to assemble an ICU bed and its accessories? The reason is that we are extremely comfortable importing every little thing. Africa’s businesspeople are essentially importers. Flights from Africa to Asia are always full of people on trade excursions. Many, after a long day’s work and relaxing in sauna brag about the number of containers they are shipping in. Not containers of machinery to make the products at home. Why should a businessperson import goods for 30 years without trying to make that same product?

The Chinese from whom the Africans import stuff simply study these traders and then come to Africa and set up factories to make the stuff the Africans have been importing for decades. The Africans then run to the media to cry that the foreigners are getting incentives and are undercutting them. Why should the government not give factories owners incentives?

Drive around the entire country and ask who owns the new shinny mall or apartment block and then ask who owns the factories, the answers will be different. We have failed to build capacity in making products and we have left that role to foreigners. The foreigners will also build stuff that may not be strategic for our country.

The government needs to get involved in manufacturing again. The structural adjustment programmes of the 1990s that led to the government abandoning manufacturing and being involved in business was a mistake. It is time for the government to go back in there and look at the industries that many other people may not want to invest in because of money and long period it would take to make profits and take them on. Its involvement in Kiira Motors is a good start.

Cuba, a small, impoverished island has developed a COVID-19 vaccine that is more than 90% effective. Africa is yet to come up with one, 60 years after gaining independence. When COVID-19 first struck, most African leaders created theories about the weather and a youthful population. When Merinda Gates argued that Africa will be severely hit, African elites went on social media and attacked her instead of planning for a pending crisis. Today, we are holding national prayers to pray COVID away!

African leaders love guns and military hardware but even those they gladly show off during Independence Day celebrations are mainly imported. And they are usually second or fourth hand. Why don’t they start making them here on the continent?

Many of the most important innovations we have today were originally invented for the military. The telephone, internet and even drones quickly come to mind. Africa to develop and solve the challenges of our time must industrialize.

The writer is a communication and visibility consultant. djjuuko@gmail.com

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Out to Lunch

#OutToLunch: How Uganda’s next president could easily reduce the housing deficit

By Denis Jjuuko It is not uncommon to find a social media post in Uganda regarding the price of land or property being shared many times. The argument is that land prices are extremely high especially around Kampala and in many major cities or towns across the country. With an ever-increasing population and poor infrastructure and services a few kilometres outside these major urban centres, it shouldn’t be entirely surprising that land is expensive. I have always given an example of Mpigi town, which is nearer to Kampala than Entebbe but a difficult place to commute due to poor infrastructure. Yet with the Entebbe expressway or even the old road, Entebbe is an easier place to access. So, land prices around Entebbe will always be high as not many people would make Mpigi their area of residence while working in Kampala. That though will change when the Kampala-Mpigi Expressway is complete. However, construction of infrastructure such as expressways in Uganda takes a very long time leading to people crowding around the urban areas where it is easier to commute to their workplaces and services such as hospitals and schools are better. This increases pressures on land for housing purposes in urban areas. And as the population grows, land, an inelastic resource becomes more expensive. Many young people end up struggling to build houses. With the current housing shortage said to be over 2.4 million units in Uganda, poor infrastructure and services and an ever increasing population, the price of land will only continue to rise unless the government does something. And that wouldn’t be nationalizing land like some people urge whenever there are delays in executing infrastructure projects or when the price of land is seen as a hindrance to young people owning houses. Government must realize that the most valuable asset the majority of Ugandans will ever own is a house. Once people own property, they wouldn’t want to create so much chaos that could lead to destruction. Empowering young people to own houses should therefore be in the government’s best interests. Since land in Uganda for housing is largely owned by private entities or communities who determine its cost without any guiding principles, government could create a land bank from which individuals could buy land or a house. How would this work? And since we are going to the polls next week, the country’s next president has his work well cut out. In urban areas like greater Kampala, government could buy large tracts of land in Mukono, Mpigi, Mityana and Luweero and demarcate it for planned housing estates similar with what private land dealers do but a bit better. Land would be divided into small pieces with architectural plans drawn by leading experts. Schools, recreation, and health facilities would be planned. The government would then sell the land at a rate lower than the private sector. Nobody would be allowed to deviate from the architectural plan. If you bought in an area with bungalow houses, you build the exact bungalow. If you bought in an area for storied villas, you build a storied villa as per the architectural plan. Each person or legally married couple would be allowed to buy only one plot and you can’t sell it to another person at any rate. If a buyer prefers to sell, he sells it back to the government at the price he bought it. This would protect the land from speculators who buy, hoard and then sell at an exorbitant price. Because the cost of building a house with a given architectural plan is easy to establish, banks would only rent a certain amount of money. Banks willing to lend the money would not give it to the individual as is usually the case, rather a prequalified construction company that can deliver the house within the established cost of building it with a capped interest rate or profit. This is how Islamic banking works and therefore not a novel idea that is difficult to implement. Should a person fail to pay, the government buys it from the bank at the set amount and then sells it to somebody else. People could pay in installments over a given period. Monthly deductions could be made to salaried workers such as civil servants interested. The government can then construct roads and expressways to those areas as many people would be living in these housing estates. Public transport, schools and health facilities would be prioritized. More young people would end up owning houses and therefore a huge stake in their country and ministry of urban planning would have something big to deliver. The price of land for housing would plummet too enabling more people to own houses. The writer is a communication and visibility consultant. djjuuko@gmail.com

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Out to Lunch

#OutToLunch: Replicate innovation hubs in Kampala and refugee settlements across the country

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Education

From Smartphones to Sustainable Livelihoods: Manafwa Youth Power a New Digital Future

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