#OutToLunch: Treasury bonds, unit trusts provide pathways to real estate and business capital accumulation

By Denis Jjuuko

Many people in countries like Uganda have no pension or any form of retirement savings. Like we saw during the pandemic, most people are a missed payment away from poverty. It probably explains why some people especially in public service are said to be swearing affidavits to lower their age. The thought of retirement sends a chill down their spine.

Some have trauma from their past experiences as children of people who retired to poverty in the 1990s following massive retrenchment. It could also be one of the reasons for the rampant corruption in Uganda today.

So, it is always refreshing when a debate on where to invest comes up. Like it has been over the last few weeks on the social media platform X. The issue of debate was whether people should invest in real estate, treasury bonds, bills and unit trusts. Some said real estate (rentals) and others were in for treasury bonds, bills and unit trusts. Others said let people do business.

This is a good debate that gives people options of where to save and invest and avoid the YOLO (you leave only once) mantra that some young people subscribe to. YOLO is a one-way ticket to poverty during retirement.

Uganda has one of the world’s youngest populations so to tell them to invest for retirement sometimes looks and sounds extreme. If somebody is 25 years old, they look at retirement at age 60 which is 35 years away as something that can be handled at a future date.

The challenge is that if you start saving and investing for retirement at age 45 or 50, you will have to put aside lots of money every month. If you start at 25, you can put small amounts aside which grow into something huge over time. It is what some people call the snowball effect.

Long term treasury bonds (10-20 years) return an average of 14 percent per a year while bills and unit trusts return around 10 percent annually in net income. Real estate may also be around 8-10 percent annually but in gross income. These returns are sometimes discouraging.

The proponents of business say the returns are so low in real estate and bonds. Those who propose bonds and unit trusts argue that it is net income and therefore very few businesses make such net profitability. The real estate advocates talk about appreciation. All those arguments are probably correct.

The issue is that many people usually have more money on them than they need that they aren’t investing anywhere. And if that money is available and accessible, it is easy to use it on stuff that are not that critical.

I have been to places where strangers have bought me drinks just because their favourite team in the English premier league has won a game or the one, they hate has been defeated. There are even people who dress up nicely, go to a bar, sit down and drinks are sent their way by strangers.

Although that may make life interesting and worth living, it isn’t because the majority doing so have a lot. Many have no savings and sometimes are the ones claiming that they have nothing to save or that 10% interest annually on Shs1m is so little. For many people, Shs1m is also little to start a meaningful business. What do some people do? Eat it.

If you are a young person and your dream is to invest in real estate, one of the easiest pathways is through bonds, bills and unit trusts. Let us make some assumptions here.

Suppose you need Shs10m to invest in a plot of land where you will build rentals, it may take you a long term to have that money as a lump sum. But if you invest Shs100,000 every month and that money grows at about 10% annually, you will hit the target in 6.5 years. You would actually have Shs482,000 more. If you wait to have a lumpsum of Shs10m, you may take forever to get it. Same model can be used to raise business capital.

Most Ugandans who invest in real estate do so over a long time but in a way that sometimes doesn’t make them money. They start building with little money and spend years building incrementally. Bonds, bills and unit trusts could still be an alternative using the same model mentioned above.

Instead of starting construction with little money, they could invest it over time and withdraw it when it is significant enough to complete the project. That way, construction doesn’t become a lifetime drag.

The writer is a communication and visibility consultant. djjuuko@gmail.com

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#OutToLunch: Watoto’s Kabaka anniversary do and why ability transcends DNA

By Denis Jjuuko On the last day of July 1993, a mammoth crowd gathered at Naggalabi hill in Buddo to witness the historical occasion of coronating Prince Ronald Muwenda Mutebi as the 36th Kabaka of Buganda. For many people in Buganda that day, it is something they had not witnessed in their lifetime. The last coronation had taken place in November 1942 and then the kingdom was abolished in 1966, the Kabaka exiled and an opportunity to coronate his heir temporarily lost. I remember my guardian giving us a rare day off to watch the live telecast all day. This is the only day I remember where we didn’t have to be bothered with house chores. You could pick a cup of tea and just sit in front of the tiny television set in the living room—as long as you didn’t make noise to distract the elders. And being a Saturday, it helped. There was no school to attend. Given Uganda’s demographics, many watching the 33rd coronation anniversary last Friday at Watoto Church in Bweyogerere were either too young or not yet born in July 1993. It was therefore refreshing when Katikkiro Charles Peter Mayiga opened his speech with a memory lane of the events of that day in 1993. He perfectly understood the audience of his message. There are many young urbane educated people who sometimes look the other way when it comes to cultural issues. Some see culture as a road block to their Christian values and aspirations. Holding the coronation anniversary at an urbane church for a young largely educated audience sent a message that culture and religion can and should co-exist. The Watoto leadership embraced the occasion like no other and left no stone unturned in organizing a befitting ceremony. I think this was the first time that a major kingdom event, coronation or birthday, had been held outside the usual hills — Namirembe, Lubaga, Namungoona, Namasuba and Kibuli where Anglicans, Catholics, Orthodox, Adventists and Muslims are headquartered or largely based respectively. You rarely see religious leaders from all denominations gathered in a Pentecostal church, some dancing, waving or in deep prayer during the praise and worship sessions that are common with Pentecostals. The religious leaders were also joined by politicians of all colors. Another example of how culture can be a uniting force. Even though the Kabaka wasn’t personally in attendance in adherence to advice of his medical team, the people turned up in huge numbers, prayed for him and commemorated the day like no other. More others spent the day listening to live broadcasts on radio or watching on television and online. Perhaps watching from his Kireka Palace, a stone’s throw from Watoto’s vast Bweyogerere campus, the Kabaka might have smiled or even nodded at some of the energetic performances Watoto put together in his honor. The more I watched the charismatic young leader of Watoto Church, Pastor Julius Rwotlonyo, preside over perhaps the biggest event of his pastoral journey, the more I thought about Ugandan businesses. Watoto, previously Kampala Pentecostal Church or simply KPC, was founded in 1984 by Canadian missionaries Garry Skinner and his wife. Rwotlonyo was either a toddler or not even born yet. He has no known blood relations with the Watoto founders but today, he is the leader of the church. Pastor Skinner and his wife are alive and are known to have children. But they chose a successor that isn’t their relative. They saw somebody who can further advance their mission and decided to retire and give him the executive suite at their famous building in downtown Kampala. Because of the occasion, Skinner sent in a recorded message. Otherwise, he is not known to be involved in every little thing that happens at the church he founded. This teaches us that we can start businesses, set systems in place, and identify teams that can continue leading when our time to go comes. The successors may or may not be our children. That DNA should not be the only requirement for somebody to lead the businesses we start. Ability to deliver should transcend DNA. It should be in the interests of founders to identify and nurture young people who can take over the business. Since the Skinners handed over Watoto to Rwotlonyo, we haven’t heard any fights like it is common for Ugandan businesses when the founders leave. And had they been involved in any scandals, certainly the Kingdom of Buganda wouldn’t have honored them with an opportunity to host a coronation anniversary. It is something founders must ponder. The writer is a communication and visibility consultant. djjuuko@gmail.com

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#OutToLunch: Stronger African economies will create a World Cup winner

By Denis Jjuuko The football World Cup ended recently with Spain lifting the golden trophy after defeating Argentina 1-0 in extra time. This year’s tournament has seen the teams expanded from 32 to 48 of which 10 were from Africa. It is by far the biggest football World Cup ever in nearly 100 years since the competition was first organised in 1930. The organizer, FIFA, is even now talking about further expanding it to 64 national teams. One of the major talking points of the tournament has been the performance of teams from Africa. Only Morocco made it to the quarterfinals. Unlike in the last tournament in 2022 in Qatar, Morocco reached the semifinals. It is the only time an African team had reached that far in the tournament. Countries outside Europe and America didn’t do much either this year. Of the four countries that qualified for the semifinals, only defending champions Argentina is outside Europe. Needless to say, that Argentina was being inspired by Lionel Messi, probably the best player the world has ever seen since Pele and Diego Maradona. Anyway, why don’t African teams perform that well in the World Cup competition yet unlike Asia or the Middle East, football is the most popular sport on the continent? Many young boys on the continent wake up to kick the ball in the streets. Many others try to create professional careers while others watch it for hours on end especially over the weekend. Even though the interest is immense, sports, not just soccer, isn’t considered a major career pathway for many people on the continent. Parents rather push their children into other professional careers than sports. Go to school, get an education, find a job and live a better life thereafter. Sports such as soccer provide very short careers. About 10 years if you are lucky. By the time a player is 30, most likely their career is over. Of course, there are outliers like Messi who is 39 years old and still performing at the top level and Christiano Ronaldo who is 41 years old. But for the majority of players, they don’t stay in the game for that long. Of course, there are other areas in which they can earn after retirement such as coaching, television punditry and podcasting, scouting and even management but the openings are even fewer. Look at the premier league for example, there are only 20 teams and each team has about 30 players, which translates to a paltry 600 players. To make it to the premier league or any of the top leagues in the world is for the exceptional. I think that is why parents usually guide their children away from sports. Besides it is expensive to support a child’s career to develop to a level where he can attract interest of the big highly paying professional leagues. If you are in Africa, the odds are highly against you. Sport is poorly funded. Infrastructure is almost non-existent. A kid with talent needs high quality coaches, kits and infrastructure to make it. Do they exist? Hardly. In many communities, the kids play on bare grounds and in urban areas those grounds are being turned into bland shopping malls. A parent would have to invest in flying a child to European academies to get the best training they need to make it. How many such parents have such resources? And if the kids are good, they would be assimilated in Europe. If you look at the three European countries that reached this year’s semifinals, there are quite a number of immigrants. Some may have been born in Europe, but there are also others who weren’t born there. England’s Marc Guehi was born in Ivory Coast. Of course, north African teams had players born in Europe but usually those are few. And many only chose African teams after failing to impress European countries. We always talk about professionalizing our leagues but it is difficult if the economies are weak. Unless we prioritize developing our economies, African teams will always struggle to win the World Cup. Weak African economies can’t afford to pay top young modern coaches. We end up picking hustlers from eastern Europe or pensioners from western Europe, whose ideas and methods are way past their sell-by dates. Stronger economies would create big companies that can invest in sport as sponsors or even in club ownership (many private equity and hedge funds own clubs in Europe/America for example). Clubs would be able to sell tickets and merchandise at premium rates, develop players they can sell to other clubs in Europe and elsewhere at world market rates and create a sports ecosystem that generates millions of dollars every day. If our economies remain as they are today, we can kiss the World Cup goodbye. The writer is a communication and visibility consultant. djjuuko@gmail.com

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Out to Lunch

#OutToLunch: Students joining universities could self-teach themselves AI to disrupt sectors like agriculture

By Denis Jjuuko The month of August sees public universities open their gates to first year students. Joining university is one of the milestones many young people celebrate, the last step in the journey to the pinnacle of education. In a few years, they would be out of university and joining the workforce. But also, university in Uganda is really the first time somebody enjoys adulthood. The pampering starts to end once you join university. There are no teachers and wardens chasing you out of your room to attend class. Most universities don’t care much how you dress. If you are female, you decide whatever you want to do with your hair. Nobody sends you back home for having a mobile phone. It is in fact a taboo not owning a smartphone. You can return or not even return to your digs. Real freedom is perhaps only enjoyed while at university. When you leave and get married, you start being accountable for every little thing but then I digress. However, it must also be a mixed feeling for many parents, guardians and the students themselves. Have they chosen the right academic course? Will the jobs be available when students finish their academic journeys given the artificial intelligence (AI) disruptions we hear about every day? Many decades ago, a university degree meant a good job. Employers booked future workers before they even graduated. And upon graduation, people found themselves with decent jobs, housing, cars and whatever they needed to succeed. Today, there is no guarantee. The numbers of people joining the labour force are higher than the jobs available. The majority of Ugandan jobs, more than 70%, are in agriculture. Many young graduates aren’t very comfortable working there. In many poor agrarian economies, the pay is usually low and work is in remote areas. The majority of students are from rural communities and they want to try life elsewhere. They have been told for nearly two decades that education is the clearest pathway to a better life, which it is. If they attain education at the highest level only return to the village to work in agriculture, many people would look at them as failures. Yet it shouldn’t be. If you remove gold, coffee is Uganda’s biggest export earner bringing in billions of dollars annually. People have turned their lives around recently because of coffee. The agronomical practices may have changed a bit thanks to campaigns like Mmwanyi Terimba of Buganda Kingdom but there is still a lot that needs to be done. If we are to reach our target of 20 million bags of 60kg annually from about 8.6 million, we need to send some of our educated people to agriculture. The knowledge acquired at university should be used to improve the coffee value chain or any other agricultural product. It could be sales and marketing, post harvest handling, agronomy, logistics, finance, investments, procurement, accounting, value addition etc. Farmers would also have to appreciate the value that graduates bring to the field if they are to see improved yields. Many people employee the least educated and qualified people to look after their investments in agriculture. Pick a boy who can’t even write his name and put him in charge of a poultry farm of 20,000 birds or a 20-acre coffee farm. The results are expected. Frustrations upon frustrations. Africa’s food import bill is nearing US$100 billion a year yet we have a youthful population that is looking for work. How do we put young highly educated people to work in agriculture? If coffee is improving the lives of farmers in Bukomansimbi, it means it can employ young people and give them decent salaries. And the young people will work hard to improve yields on the farms or profitability in the value chain because that is a guaranteed way for them to improve their incomes too. If we reduce how much food we import, that can be money directly put in the pockets of young people. However, the policy makers might be on other perfunctory things. As young people join universities, they need to think of how they can work in sectors like agriculture and turn them around using whatever qualifications they acquire. That is where the jobs are. The universities will likely teach them basics. The majority of university students have a lot of time. Some have classes for a few days a week or just in the evening or a few hours a day. They can use new technologies like AI to teach themselves a few things that may help them disrupt sectors like agriculture. That way they will create value that leads them to securing decent jobs. The writer is a communication and visibility consultant. djjuuko@gmail.com See less

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