#OutToLunch: Let the demographic dividend not pass us by

By Denis Jjuuko

The results of the national population census that were not overly surprising. Uganda is one of the countries with the fastest growing populations and we did not disappoint with 11.3 million added since the last census in 2014.

We are now 45.9 million people. Phew! We are what some of my friends call “team no sleep” since we spend a great amount of our time producing babies. It is assumed babies are made at night when people frolic between the sheets instead of sleeping but that may not be the best way to start this article. We are a damn serious lot here!

Anyway, one of the most interesting bits from the population census was the revelation that 55.6% of Uganda’s population is between ages 14 to 64. That translates to more than 25.5 million people. This is the age group that is defined as the working age. If harnessed appropriately, this demographic dividend that we have attained can lead to unprecedented economic growth.

A demographic dividend leads to less resources spent on the elderly, those in retirement and even children. Those working should be able to take care of themselves and their offspring. Of course, this would require reduction in births so that investments are not put at entirely looking after children. However, it will take a while for us as a country to stop being “team no sleep.”

Many people love to have several children or grandchildren. Sometimes it is because we are still an uneducated lot who believe that having more children is an insurance that protects a parent in case some of the children die. Since many children grow up by chance in Uganda, many parents would prefer to have more. If two or so die, they would not be childless, the argument goes.

This means that Uganda would have to spend more money on education and health so that many people start seeing their children growing up and debunk their argument for having more kids. The more educated people are, the better chances of raising healthy kids. They will immunize them, make them sleep in mosquito nets, take them to healthy facilities when sick, and feed them better and most importantly educate them which eventually will break a cycle of poverty that most households find them in today.

Also, like studies have shown, the more educated people are, the more likely to earn better. Investments in education are key in enabling people to earn better and live better lives. Many African countries have rolled out universal primary and even secondary education but the quality is low with many learners unable to read and write at the level commensurate with their level of education.

Secondary education must be emphasized but also made relevant in this age of technology because this is the highest level many students in Africa attain. Digital and communication skills will be critical but also, they should leave secondary education such as O-level when they are able to do some work that can lead to sustainable employment. Integrating technical and vocational skills is important.

If we massively invest in affordable high-quality education at all levels, investments will flow as businesses take advantage of our demographic dividend — a young highly trainable population. Most businesses such as factories rely on a workforce that is trainable to do repetitive work efficiently. They don’t even need to think, they need to simply add a part here and there on the assembly line or do the same thing repeatedly.

Of course, there are many things that need to be in place to attract investments. Economic and political stability is crucial. And if we can’t find jobs for these 25.5 million people, there will not be political stability regardless of how many teargas canisters or pink water canons we import. If the tax revenue collection guys decide on whim how much one is to pay, it won’t make it easier for people to bring their money here either.

If farmers in Masaka have to sleep in their gardens at night to protect their coffee from thieves, big coffee players will think twice before setting up their factories here. If a kick in Kampala sends you to your creator and the criminal knows police won’t find him, then people will take their money elsewhere.

If Kampala remains run down as it is now, investors won’t be impressed to invest. Infrastructure is key. We can’t continuously avoid investments in the major road network in Kampala. Electricity must be available and affordable.

Systems to facilitate businesses must be in place which means bureaucracy in government offices must be cut down. Civil servants should not behave as if they are doing investors local and foreign a favour. Otherwise, this demographic dividend may pass us by.

The writer is a communication and visibility consultant. djjuuko@gmail.com

Tags: Denis Jjuuko, Government of Uganda ., Kampala, National Population Census, Out to Lunch, Prime Time Communications, Uganda

Out to Lunch

#OutToLunch: Africans will continue seeking western citizenships unless governments act

By Denis Jjuuko Many years ago, I decided to go out of the country for my graduate education which lasted about 18 months after which I came back to Uganda. Upon my return, I found myself, like most young people, unemployed. I went to visit a family friend whose children live and work outside Uganda. When I was leaving her home, she told me what I heard many people had said about me but not to my face. Why did I come back? I should have found a way never to return to Uganda to be unemployed. Many people will say oli musiru or you are naïve if you had a chance to run away from Uganda and didn’t take it. It isn’t just in Uganda but in many parts of Africa. That is why athletes participating in international sporting events are known to “disappear” into thin air instead of returning once the tournament is over. They rather become illegal immigrants doing odd jobs (kyeyo) than returning to the dusty streets of African capitals. Many students at graduate schools never return to the continent. Some become career students as they look for opportunities to remain in those countries. West Africans rather die trying to walk the breadth of the Sahara Desert and then jump onto ricket risky boats to cross into Europe than remaining at home riding boda bodas. The few times I visit Entebbe airport, the biggest number of departing passengers I see are young women dressed in abayas and hijabs walking in a choreographed pattern on their way to the Arabian desert to do domestic work. They are happy to finally land a job. If you engage many of those returning to Uganda, their ultimate dream is to find a way to Europe, America or Canada. People of means have been known to fly their pregnant wives to give birth in America or other developed countries where citizenship is guaranteed upon birth, which the current US president wants to ban. He also wants to create a system where people who have the money can buy the US citizenship or permanent residency. If he did that, many wealthy Africans would pay for it. Already, people in Uganda pay hefty sums to conmen promising them US visas and green cards. One time, a visa officer at one of the embassies of the western powers said that many applications arrived with fetishes. That is when paper applications were still the norm. Once some people got the forms, they took them to their traditional healers for blessings. That is how desperate many people are for western visas and permits. Given what people do to get the visas, if the world’s biggest plane arrived at Entebbe airport and said they are taking the first 850 people to arrive to Europe or north America for free and they would be granted citizenship, you would be shocked by who would line up. There would be chaos as the big people try to jump the queue or have their spouses, children or grandchildren be the ones to go. That is why there was pandemonium when parliament didn’t approve some people appointed to ministerial positions due to their possessions of dual citizenships. Many promised to renounce the citizenships of other countries while another turned to theatrics. I highly doubt many people would renounce their western citizenships to serve as cabinet ministers beyond sending an email to some officers somewhere. Many ministers and government officials are the ones who largely send their wives and daughters to give birth in America. They encourage their children who they send to the west to study to remain there until they have processed the paperwork that may lead to citizenship or permanent residency. Publicly, they may renounce the western citizenships and even hire social media influencers to make their case but deep down, they prefer western passports. That is why they acquired them in the first place. They know the benefits of western citizenships. African economies celebrate remittances from their people in the diaspora with fanfare and many are happy to create policies that send their youths to the gulf states to work even though they sometimes publicly denounce those who seek to go and work there. Western citizenships are largely sought after by Africans for economic reasons. What about creating opportunities and an environment here on the continent? If we did, there wouldn’t be many people doing whatever it takes to become western citizens in the first place. The writer is a communication and visibility consultant. djjuuko@gmail.com

June 24, 2026

Out to Lunch

#OutToLunch: English soccer fanaticism provides opportunities for business

By Denis Jjuuko The European soccer season is finally over after reaching its crescendo the other weekend with the Uefa Champions League final in Budapest. The soccer faithful are now bracing themselves for the FIFA World Cup that is kicked off yesterday in Mexico who will co-host alongside USA and Canada. Here, national teams will compete for the world’s biggest soccer prize. Given the time difference, expect emotions running really high late nights and early mornings. Soccer is the world’s most popular sport with an estimated 4 billion fans globally. Stars of the game like Diego Maradona and Pele (now both deceased) are even worshipped in their respective countries (Argentina and Brazil) and in many parts of the world. Current soccer gods, Lionel Messi of Argentina and Christiano Ronaldo of Portugal have hundreds of millions of followers all over the world. It will be both their last World Cup. Messi won it the last time the tournament was held four years ago. Ronaldo is looking forward to add it on his ever-growing list of achievements. In the regular season, the English Premier League is the most popular one in Uganda and indeed many parts of the world. English clubs particularly Arsenal, Liverpool and Manchester United have millions of followers in Uganda. When Arsenal won the premiership title at the end of the season last month, its fans went hysterical. Church events were organised. Concerts were held. People matched several kilometres in mock trophy parades. Rival fans trolled Arsenal. Arsenal fans shot back. Memes were created. The banter has been in high gear. Some of the people trying to be different after watching huge crowds of Arsenal fans in several African capitals wondered why the people were celebrating a foreign team. They called it colonialism. Some of the loudest voices were journalists including those working for media houses that push for western hegemony. Such people argued that Africans must develop their own games or stop worshiping colonizers. Anyway, the globalization of the media (including social media) and the marketing capabilities of European leagues have made European soccer a must watch for many. It is easier to find a TV showing an English soccer match than a Ugandan one. The money involved also means that the development in terms of infrastructure and talent is many centuries ahead of countries like Uganda. Sometimes, a live match involving humans resembles a computer game in execution. The aesthetics of the English Premier League is hard to ignore. But after watching these huge crowds, one wonders what could be done? How can entrepreneurs in countries like Uganda tap in? There are millions of fans, who are so committed to their clubs and they remain faithful even when the titles are elusive for decades. Looking at the sheer numbers of Arsenal fans in Uganda and Kenya, one could tell that they were wearing counterfeit replica shirts. Indeed, very few fans in East Africa can afford a Pound Sterling 140 (approximately Shs711,000) shirt before even shipment and taxes. And many small shops sell these counterfeits for as little as Shs30,000. What if someone negotiated a deal with these clubs to make replica shirts that are affordable for countries like Uganda? The shirts would probably be Ugandan or African themed to make them a bit different from what they sell in Europe and elsewhere. Most fans would love to buy them because they would know that these are original shirts meant for the continent. The franchise owner would of course work with law enforcement to ensure cheap counterfeits aren’t shipped in. And then for those who can afford the European ones, could order from the franchise owner. Other merchandise items could be also be shipped in using the same concept. Soccer is best watched among peers and fans. At home, to the chagrin of most spouses especially the female ones, it can be boring. Rival fans can also be good to troll as the match goes on—those brave enough to go to a bar where they aren’t in the majority. Imagine an Arsenal, Liverpool or Manchester United themed bar? Fans of the particular club would be sure to catch the game on large screens in a friendly atmosphere. One of the challenges of Ugandan bars that show matches is inconsistence. You sometimes find them flipping channels trying to make everyone happy especially when several matches are being played at the same time. Some fans end up leaving to find a place where their team’s match is being shown. A themed bar will dedicate the club’s matches regardless of the opposition. They would also not be playing loud music when 95% of the people are watching soccer instead of commentary. Menus such as cocktails could be club themed as well. Betting company could sponsor some matches and parties. A loyal clientele could be easily established thereby guaranteeing good returns for the investor. The writer is a communication and visibility consultant. djjuuko@gmail.

June 24, 2026

Out to Lunch

#OutToLunch: Surging bank profitability offers critical lessons for small businesses

By Denis Jjuuko It is that time of the year again when commercial banks publish their financial results in the newspapers as part of fulfilling the regulations that govern them. Most of them have registered year on year increases in profitability, lending, deposits and total assets among other metrics. If you only read the commercial banks’ results and made conclusions on the economy, Uganda’s economy is in such great shape. All the commercial banks combined made more than Shs2.1 trillion in profits according to the figures they released. That translates to nearly US$6 billion. The shareholders must be smiling all the way to their banks. Those who haven’t invested in commercial banks, must be wondering how to get in. The good news is that several of these banks are listed on the stock exchange. A big chunk of the money banks reported to have made came from their loan books. It isn’t entirely surprising since the interest rates they charge are some of the highest in the world. Anyone who charges upwards of 16 percent in annual interest should be able to grow every quarter, half year and annually. But I think the steady growth in commercial banks profitability comes at the expenses of other sectors of the economy. Assets of defaulters on these commercial bank loans were advertised on the opposite pages of many of the results of the banks. One hand gives, another takes, isn’t that what we have always been told? However, there is no need to begrudge banks. They aren’t entirely responsible for the high interest rates in the country. The capital requirements to start a commercial bank are prohibitive and those who recently failed to meet them were downgraded to lower tiers. Also, the government borrows at such high rates giving banks carte blanche to charge similar and even higher rates. Those who borrow and default are also many. Banks tell us, lending to Ugandans is high risk. Probably it is. I believe you know somebody who castigated you for depositing money on their mobile money account on which they had renegaded to pay back. Anyway, what can we learn from the financial performance of the commercial banks? There many lessons especially for businesses. Commercial banks just like other big business that publish their results such as telecoms have one thing in common — repeat long term customers. When you sign up for a loan such as a mortgage, you commit to pay back for such a long period. If you borrow for say 10 years, the bank is nearly assured of making money from you for 120 months. Should you fail, they have a property you gave them as collateral to get their money bank. Some of the costs they incurred to sign a customer were a one off. And if you are a disciplined borrower, they almost incur no other costs to recover their money. Long term customers who pay periodically are a goldmine for any business. Unless otherwise, many people don’t change their bank accounts. So even those who don’t borrow, there is some monthly or usage fees they pay. A bank is therefore assured of income. Telecoms make money the same way. How many times have you changed your telephone line? Many people don’t change their telephone lines. That means that a telecom is assured of making money off you until you die. Repeat long term customer at its best. Even when you die, sometimes the family keeps the line so that there is some continuity especially for those involved in doing business. As small businesses, it may not be easy to have an assured customer for 10 years or a lifetime so there is need for them to work hard to attract repeat customers. It means improving the product all the time and constantly marketing so that customers can return regularly. Commercial banks and telecoms do that all the time because if they don’t, customers can move to other banks and telecoms respectively. There is a need to observe how they market, what they do to retain their customers and try to copy that even when small businesses don’t have unlimited budgets. The writer is a communication and visibility consultant. djjuuko@gmail.

June 5, 2026