Covid-19 presents the right time to invest in long term assets

A major business transaction in Uganda’s oil industry was recently announced but it didn’t create the attention we usually see in both legacy media and on social media. Perhaps the world has been pre-occupied with Covid-19 and some supplementary budgets.

To bring you up to speed, Total E&P announced that it had bought out Tullow Oil PLC ‘s assets for US$575m and Uganda was to earn US$14.6m in taxes — a significant drop from US$167m Uganda was to earn less than a year ago. Tullow Oil is said to have previously argued that it had invested US$617 million in its Ugandan assets, which is 33.33% of oil wells in the Lake Albert Development Project Area.

The proceeds from the sale, Tullow Oil said, was to “reduce its net debt, strengthen the balance sheet, and move the oil company towards a more conservative capital structure.”

Total E&P made the deal when the price of oil is in negatives. Typically oil producers have to pay their customers to take the oil. It is that bad as the lockdown in many countries across the globe has led to low demand for oil products.

Total E&P’s decision to buy at this time is smart. A significant price drop means that oil assets that were being sold at crazy rates a year ago are now available at far less than they are worth. If it is indeed true that Tullow had invested US$617m and agreed to sell at a price which is less that what they invested, it means that they lost US$42m even though the deal allows them “potential contingent payments after first oil.”

Was Tullow desperate to sell? Or they made the best decision because if they hold on, they may get less than what they got today?

If you listen to economists and some finance people these days, they are arguing that this isn’t the right time to start businesses. That there is no need to invest in capital assets. They argue that you should keep your money because we don’t know how long Covid-19 will be around and how the economy will react thereafter.

Of course, it would be suicidal to simply invest all your money in capital assets when it is all gloomy. You need to have some money to help pay for certain needs such as housing, food, and medical expenses for at least one year. After that, you should invest because if we are to learn anything from Total E&P’s decision to buy Tullow’s assets in Uganda is that this the right time to buy.

Warren Buffet, the legendary stock market investor once advised that never buy when everyone is hungry. Once people aren’t hungry, pounce. Right now, most people aren’t hungry for capital assets making it the right time ever to buy. You only need to be in it for the long haul.

As businesses go under, there will be many on sale for a song for many reasons including failure to meet their loan obligations. There are going to be many foreclosures as people can’t pay their mortgages. They will want to cash in.

Bank loans are going to be hard to get. I believe it is difficult already to get a bank loan today as every projection shows an economy that is not going to recover for some time. Banks are naturally risk-averse so they will only lend money when the numbers look good. For people to survive, they will sell off some assets since they won’t be able to get loans to stay afloat.

Because the economy will be struggling, there will not be many buyers. This is what they call a buyer’s market where the seller doesn’t fully determine the price of the goods and assets he is selling. A buyer’s market is the best time to buy. Many goods and assets with few buyers creating an opportunity for those with some cash reserves. If you want to further understand this, look at the price of a tray of eggs today — from Shs12,000 four months ago to Shs3500 in some parts of Kampala. And just to remind you, there might never be a stimulus package from the government.

If you are to take advantage of this buyer’s market, be ready to hold for the long term. As the economy recovers, the assets cheaply available today will attract premium rates. Take for example real estate, the prices are going to significantly drop but in a few years, they will attract very good prices when you sell.

Out to Lunch

#OutToLunch: Invest in a residential house or start a business? It is your profile that matters

By Denis Jjuuko It is one of those debates that will never end similar to the one most people are used to —chicken and the egg, what came first? Though this time it is on a personal residential house and a business or even investing in financial assets like treasury bonds. It is an issue we have discussed before in previous editions of #OutToLunch. Since it won’t go away, why not revisit it? First, let us get to speed with the differing arguments. One side of the coin posits that people especially young ones investing in personal residential houses are stifling growth and funds that may have been used to invest elsewhere is stuck in bricks and mortar. That renting is many times cheaper than owning a personal residential house. The argument continues that people should invest in personal residential houses when they are financially secure. Millions can be stuck in a residential house which doesn’t provide much returns. The other side of the coin argues otherwise. That a personal residential house is a prerequisite for growth. That it is an investment too and unlike businesses or financial assets, it is not as affected by inflation. The argument is that a residential house’s value increases year on year as the country develops. It is a low-risk asset class that leads to increment in one’s net worth. Proponents of this view also argue about peace of mind. The landlord doesn’t have to get worried if he popped in and found you eating chicken! And it can be an asset one could use as collateral for financing to invest in other areas, the argument continues. What decision, then, should a young person make? Invest their money in business, bonds or start on a personal residential house journey? These questions need contextualization, which is never provided by those who advance one argument against the other. For example, what does one want? What does the person do for a living? Can one do both? Many people are not wired not to lose money especially if they can withdraw it at any time the way it is with financial assets. If they hear something is profitable, they rush to invest into it without thinking. That is why many scammers exist. They know people who have money are easily tempted. A cousin has no fees? They rush to give. Real estate is hard to liquidate, which forces many easily excitable people to keep their wealth for the long term. But does a personal residential house curtail somebody’s financial growth? It could, where money that would have been invested in business is channeled into an asset that may not bring back immediate returns. Many Ugandans love building houses in their ancestral villages where they visit a few times a year and can’t rent out or turn them into small bed and breakfast enterprises. Others want very big and fancy ones, which they probably don’t need. And such projects could lead to the collapse of a business or deny one funds that they could have invested elsewhere to ensure financial growth. This brings us back to the issue of contextualization that we talked about earlier. In this case, it is the profile of the person. If you decided to invest in a business or financial assets, do you have the temperament to see money accumulating on your investment account without spending it on ostentatious goods? Can you see your friends holidaying in Santorini and not feel the urge to do the same? If you are a man, are you be able to handle a spouse that sings in your ear everyday about not owning a house? Of if you visit your friends, do you feel left out because you are renting? Will you be able to handle the stress that comes with a business failing? Or you will regret why you didn’t build? As you can see, there are many questions in this article. Questions whose answers can only be provided not by financial advisors on X and TikTok but by the person who is in the middle of making the decision. Building a personal residential house may be the best decision one could make. For another, it might not be the best decision. The type of house and where it is built matters as well. Similar to financial assets, where one invests matters. However, I believe that people can build residential houses while also investing in businesses or financial assets at the same time. Most Ugandans build incrementally, which is done over several years. If one had a certain amount of money, depending on their interests, they could have a percentage in a personal residential house and another in business or financial assets. The writer is a communication and visibility consultant. djjuuko@gmail.com

September 4, 2025

Out to Lunch

#OutToLunch: Uganda’s businesses can also celebrate 50 years like Afrigo

By Denis Jjuuko If you are familiar with things Masaka, you have probably heard of Nabugabo Beach. A usually quiet beach on the shores of Lake Victoria. A place you would perhaps wish to sit, listen to water waves and reflect. I think one of the major Christian faiths in Uganda even owns a retreat center in the area. But Nabugabo Beach becomes totally different on two days a year — Boxing Day and Easter Monday. The quietness is replaced with the exuberance of youth, the calmness of adulthood, the rowdiness of revelers, the sound of Uganda’s most powerful line arrays, and the tastiness of beverages in all colors and bottles. It seems the whole of Masaka including those who migrated to Kampala to trade or work as professionals descends on Nabugabo Beach to celebrate either the birth of Jesus Christ or his resurrection. Uganda’s leading musicians and whoever works in the entertainment value chain always put their mind to these days. It is a party like no other for those who can manage the crowd. So, one day, as a teenager, my guardians I think thought that I needed to experience Nabugabo Beach. I don’t remember if it was Boxing Day or Easter Monday but they decided that I should not miss out. My guardians were strict people who never allowed us to go to such events. This time, they didn’t care. I still don’t know why but reflecting about it many years later, I think it was because of the main act — the legendary Afrigo Band. We arrived at Nabugabo Beach around lunch hour and set our eyes on the stage. Two or so hours later, the MC announced that Afrigo Band was ready to perform. I fell in love with them. The guy on the keyboard, the guy on the drums, the guy on the saxophone. The guy who danced while wearing a waistcoat without a shirt. Great stuff that I remember to this day. Over the years, I started following them a bit even though I wasn’t as much a fan as my elder brother, Tete, whose Friday evenings only meant Afrigo. And when I started living with him in Kampala during my late teens, I wished one day he would wake up and say dress up and we go to Crested Towers, Little Flowers or wherever Afrigo was performing but he was never as generous as my Masaka guardians! Anyway, the other Saturday I didn’t need anyone’s invitation or permission to see them perform at their 50th anniversary at the expansive Millennium Grounds in Lugogo. The heavy downpour wanted to spoil the evening but it found us “looking.” It is remarkable what Moses Matovu and his team have done. And for me it isn’t just their timeless songs. It is how they have kept it all together for all these years. We are on a continent where we are constantly reminded that businesses don’t even celebrate their fifth birthday. And here we have Afrigo Band. 50 years in the same business with the same name and perhaps ethos. Although apart from Moses Matovu, all the other founders are long dead, the band still has people who have been part of it for more than 40 years. Drummist Herman Ssewanyana joined in 1983. Joanita Kawalya has been there since time immemorial. Becoming a Member of Parliament didn’t stop Rachel Magoola from singing Obangaina. How do we evolve to keep people interested in what we are doing for 50 years? At many Afrigo’s shows, it isn’t only old people enjoying Endongo Ssemadongo. Young people come to enjoy songs on which their parents danced “squeeze” during their wedding ceremonies. Young people bring their dates to Afrigo’s shows. Young people hire Afrigo for their weddings. I think it is because they have kept some standards and decided not to cut corners. I may be wrong but I have never heard that Afrigo announced a show and didn’t turn up like it is sometimes with some musicians. You don’t see their members in the press or on TikTok badmouthing their colleagues. Don’t the members have any differences? I think they do, after all they are human even when they enjoy legendary status, but they keep their differences under wraps. They have come to understand that what unites them and keeps them together is far more important. As we celebrate 50 years of Afrigo, we need to learn a lot from them. Patience, sticking to the basics, doing what we said we would do and ensuring that we can always pass on the baton to the next generation. The writer is a communication and visibility consultant. djjuuko@gmail.com

September 4, 2025

Out to Lunch

#OutToLunch: Hoima City Stadium provides a blueprint for Uganda’s infrastructural development

OutToLunch: Hoima City Stadium provides a blueprint for Uganda’s infrastructural development By Denis Jjuuko Ugandans may be consumed with what is taking place at the Mandela National Stadium at Namboole where Uganda is hosting some continental matches alongside their Pamoja partners Kenya and Tanzania. The three East African countries are jointly hosting the African Nations Championship (Chan), the precursor to Africa Nations Cup (Afcon), the continental soccer showpiece, which will take place in 2027. Hosting Afcon has always been largely the privilege of west and north African countries. This is the first time that East Africa will be hosting the soccer extravaganza. To do so, there was a need for stadiums and other infrastructure that meet the continental or even international standards. Namboole has been upgraded hence the ongoing Chan tournament. But what is also catching many people’s attention off the refurbished Namboole pitch is something that is taking place some 210km away in the oil rich city of Hoima. When Uganda was awarded the co-hosting rights of Afcon, many people wondered where would the tournament be held. Only Namboole had a chance of meeting the requirements albeit with some major modifications. New stadiums had to be built. Ugandans laughed hard and memes started flying on social media. Not because they are unpatriotic as some people quickly label those with divergent views. They had seen a project too many that couldn’t get done on time. They saw Uganda spending many decades constructing the 21km Northern Bypass that by the time it was completed, some cheeky people had started calling it a Bypath. They had heard endless stories about many infrastructure projects. The Jinja-Kampala Expressway, the Mpigi-Kampala Expressway and even easy to do small-small projects like Kyaliwajjala-Matugga road take forever to be done. They had become skeptical given the years it has taken Lubowa Specialized Hospital to get the building beyond the plinth wall. Airport terminal buildings? Another day please. They expected Hoima City Stadium to follow a similar path. Perhaps, because this involves some continental body in the Confederation of African Football (CAF), organisers of Afcon, the country finally awarded a contract to somebody who seems to know what they are doing in SUMMA, a Turkish outfit that has built a reputation for building stadiums in Africa and handing them over in time. What they have done since construction commenced in Hoima in September 2024 is sort of a miracle by Ugandan standards. With a budget of US$129m and constructing a 20,000-seat stadium, they have shown that a project can be worked on as scheduled. And I say this well knowing that they haven’t completed the job. Given the progress that they have made, there is no doubt that they won’t complete the job ahead of schedule. The Hoima City Stadium contractor is perhaps new in Uganda and hasn’t caught the usual bug. They have not blamed the rains like most contractors do. They have not said they can’t get materials because of the war in the Middle East or Ukraine. They haven’t blamed forex fluctuations. They haven’t blamed the invisible Powers from Above. They haven’t claimed local politicians are against the project. They have said nothing about witchcraft. They have not said Ugandans are lazy, don’t want to work and report for work while clutching sachets of illicit beverages. They have not said they can’t work at night. They have not said there is no budget or some release from the Ministry of Finance delayed. They have not appeared at any parliamentary committee to beg for this or that. Nobody has seen a letter from them asking the president for this or the other. They have simply gone on with the assignment. They have shown that Rome can be built in one day if we focused on it. That government infrastructural projects can be started and worked on as scheduled. And since we love benchmarking, the SUMMA project manager, once has finished their assignment, maybe should go on a workshop spree, teaching our contractors and their supervisors that projects today shouldn’t take as much time as building St Peter’s Basilica or the Notre Dame. And it isn’t difficult to complete projects on time. If you see an official whose desk is full of files, don’t then make him the project manager. If he can’t read the files on his desk on time, how would he manage a project that needs to be delivered on time? If money isn’t available, then don’t embark on launching the project. And hire a competent contractor. Hoima City Stadium is providing a blueprint we must all embrace. The writer is a communication and visibility consultant. djjuuko@gmail.com

August 20, 2025