At the beginning of April this year, people in Punjab, a province in India started to see the Himalayas mountain range from more than 160km away for the first time in more than 30 years. This visibility is a result of the Covid-19 lockdown with many industries closed creating clear skies many people didn’t think were possible. We have been told that planet Earth is in turmoil due to climate change. One of the biggest causes of climate change is our dependence on fossil fuels mainly oil. The lockdown created another crisis in the oil industry with crude now attracting negative prices. Oil is pumped out but there are no takers. Oil wells aren’t like your water tap that you open and close at will! There are many oil byproducts including plastics and materials used to make paved roads among others. However, oil is used mainly in vehicles to enable mobility around the world. It is estimated that there are about 1.4 billion cars in the world, a significant majority of which are dependent on petrol or gasoline and diesel. Cars became one of the most modern ways through which people travel around the world with the creation of the internal combustion engine approximately 134 years ago. Of course, along the way vehicles have become more fuel-efficient than they were just 30 years ago but the demand for petrol and diesel is still high. The lockdown with no movement for most people has made the world realize how dependent we are on oil. For the last few years, attempts have been made to move away from internal combustion engine vehicles to electric versions. Green mobility is one of the ways we can leave this planet better for our children and their grandchildren. In Uganda, Kiira Motors has been leading this revolution with their electric car, hybrid sedan, solar-powered bus, and now fully electric buses. They need support to fulfil their ambitions at least to keep our planet safer. Scientists tell us that if the world becomes warmer by just two degrees Celsius, it won’t be possible for humans to live on it. Dependency on electric vehicles would smash the amount of oil that is used to ignite vehicles around the world significantly. According to the Electricity Regulatory Authority, “the total installed capacity as at end of December 2019 was 1,252.4MW of which 1,246.5MW supplies the main grid and 5.9MW is off the main grid.” More than 80% of this capacity is from hydropower while solar contributes 4.1%. When Karuma Dam comes online with an estimated 600MW, there will even be more capacity. We are located on the Equator and assured of sunshine for most of the year. Our capacity to generate even more solar power is obvious. If we have more electricity than we can use, it means that we should consider weaning ourselves off internal combustion engines and move into electric vehicles. Kiira Motors’ two fully electric buses assembled in Nakasongola at the UPDF facility as they construct their factory in Jinja shows that we should move faster to electric vehicles. The issue of whether an electric vehicle can take you on a long trip to the countryside shouldn’t arise. If we fuel vehicles several terms when we are going to rural areas, we can charge the battery of an electric vehicle several times as well. It is even cheaper. What we need is to ensure we have a constant supply of electricity and a robust electric vehicle charging infrastructure. Businessmen looking for post-Covid-19 opportunities, this is one area they need to pay attention to. You don’t have to go to Punjab to realize that we need to take care of our planet today more than ever. Floating islands caused a national electricity shutdown just the other day by sending a message directly to the president as he was about to address the nation on the Covid-19 pandemic. More stern warnings were sent to some of the richest people who had settled in Lake Victoria’s catchment areas. Tweeps were fast to joke that a certain businessman whose hitherto palatial home was submerged is the luckiest man alive as fish is now playing right in his living room so he can catch and eat them as he wishes. It may sound like a sneering remark but it is a clear warning that we must take care of the environment today.

A major business transaction in Uganda’s oil industry was recently announced but it didn’t create the attention we usually see in both legacy media and on social media. Perhaps the world has been pre-occupied with Covid-19 and some supplementary budgets. To bring you up to speed, Total E&P announced that it had bought out Tullow Oil PLC ‘s assets for US$575m and Uganda was to earn US$14.6m in taxes — a significant drop from US$167m Uganda was to earn less than a year ago. Tullow Oil is said to have previously argued that it had invested US$617 million in its Ugandan assets, which is 33.33% of oil wells in the Lake Albert Development Project Area. The proceeds from the sale, Tullow Oil said, was to “reduce its net debt, strengthen the balance sheet, and move the oil company towards a more conservative capital structure.” Total E&P made the deal when the price of oil is in negatives. Typically oil producers have to pay their customers to take the oil. It is that bad as the lockdown in many countries across the globe has led to low demand for oil products. Total E&P’s decision to buy at this time is smart. A significant price drop means that oil assets that were being sold at crazy rates a year ago are now available at far less than they are worth. If it is indeed true that Tullow had invested US$617m and agreed to sell at a price which is less that what they invested, it means that they lost US$42m even though the deal allows them “potential contingent payments after first oil.” Was Tullow desperate to sell? Or they made the best decision because if they hold on, they may get less than what they got today? If you listen to economists and some finance people these days, they are arguing that this isn’t the right time to start businesses. That there is no need to invest in capital assets. They argue that you should keep your money because we don’t know how long Covid-19 will be around and how the economy will react thereafter. Of course, it would be suicidal to simply invest all your money in capital assets when it is all gloomy. You need to have some money to help pay for certain needs such as housing, food, and medical expenses for at least one year. After that, you should invest because if we are to learn anything from Total E&P’s decision to buy Tullow’s assets in Uganda is that this the right time to buy. Warren Buffet, the legendary stock market investor once advised that never buy when everyone is hungry. Once people aren’t hungry, pounce. Right now, most people aren’t hungry for capital assets making it the right time ever to buy. You only need to be in it for the long haul. As businesses go under, there will be many on sale for a song for many reasons including failure to meet their loan obligations. There are going to be many foreclosures as people can’t pay their mortgages. They will want to cash in. Bank loans are going to be hard to get. I believe it is difficult already to get a bank loan today as every projection shows an economy that is not going to recover for some time. Banks are naturally risk-averse so they will only lend money when the numbers look good. For people to survive, they will sell off some assets since they won’t be able to get loans to stay afloat. Because the economy will be struggling, there will not be many buyers. This is what they call a buyer’s market where the seller doesn’t fully determine the price of the goods and assets he is selling. A buyer’s market is the best time to buy. Many goods and assets with few buyers creating an opportunity for those with some cash reserves. If you want to further understand this, look at the price of a tray of eggs today — from Shs12,000 four months ago to Shs3500 in some parts of Kampala. And just to remind you, there might never be a stimulus package from the government. If you are to take advantage of this buyer’s market, be ready to hold for the long term. As the economy recovers, the assets cheaply available today will attract premium rates. Take for example real estate, the prices are going to significantly drop but in a few years, they will attract very good prices when you sell.

John is one of the employees who was recently informed by his human resource manager that his services are no longer required. The company has lost all its business due to the COVID-19 lockdown. In the letter terminating his employment, he was told that he will be paid for the days he has worked this month. He was told he will also be given a certificate of good conduct and a recommendation letter to help him in his search for a job. John is the first born in his family. With his job, John has been able to look after his ailing mother who needs medication, pay school fees for his siblings and look after his family. He almost saves nothing as transport costs, housing, medical and education leave him with almost nothing. He was a dedicated worker but like many of his colleagues at work, the company has lost so much business that the owner has decided to send everyone home. It is sad! With the economy in freefall, John can’t even start looking for a job. He spends the night awake wondering how to make rent and pay for all his expenses. In his circles, everyone is either at home or not sure for how long they will have a job. John was an active member of his local church but with no fellowships, his networking is now simply limited to his phone. Soon, buying data will be a problem. His dreams of a life where he can look after his family are now disappearing faster than the morning mist. For the years John has been in employment, he has been saving with NSSF and he has Shs20m. It is a huge amount of money for him, access to it could help during this difficult time. NSSF won’t entertain him because there is no legal framework to pay him or so they say. The NSSF Act was made in 1985 when more than 75% of Uganda’s population was not yet born! He can wait until he is 50 without a job or 55. That is 10-15 years away. So what is the purpose of saving? What is the purpose of social security? In fact, what is social security? There are many Johns out there. Those with enough resources are quick to scourge him for not saving. “NSSF only takes 5% of your money. What were you doing with the 95%?” they quickly demonize him. “Next time, learn to save your money,” says a man who works in a government ministry and earns Shs800,000 a month but lives in a house the size of Acacia Mall. “People should learn to work smart,” he volunteers more advice. John was actually saving his money. He is very frugal. For the time he was employed, he only boarded the taxi to work. He always walked his way home so that every shilling is saved. He doesn’t drink alcohol and doesn’t have any side dish. But without social services such as education and health to write home about, he isn’t left with anything at the end of the day. He looks with disdain at those who tell him to wait until he is 50 years old and unemployed or at 55 to get his money saved with NSSF. “What is the use of that money if I can’t look after my family? Will I ever live up to 50?” he asks but there are no answers. There is an ongoing debate to allow people access to a portion of their money saved with NSSF with a figure of 20% thrown around. I think it is the wrong debate. People who save money anywhere should have options to access it. If somebody fixes money with a bank, for example, they can access it at any time although they will pay a penalty but they have a say on when to get it. People also have a say in which bank to save their money. If Bank A is crazy, they go to Bank B or Bank C. They have options and the terms always different. Like we have seen everywhere in the world, monopolies behave as worse as brutal dictators. NSSF needs to have competition. What the government needs to push is that people are saving and open NSSF up to the competition. They will become more concerned about their savers than considering themselves as savers of Uganda’s economy. John who saves with NSSF has no job but the people who manage his money are assured of their jobs — to manage his savings! Apparently, he will need it in old age. NSSF tells us that the majority of those who retire and get their money waste it within the first three years of getting it. That in itself calls for reforms.